A horse-by-horse preview of Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: the world’s most prestigious horse race. Run every year on the first weekend of October, the Arc is Europe’s richest horse race and typically attracts a high-class international field, yet this year it’s the French, Irish and British contenders who dominate the betting. It’s been the career highlight and swan-song of many great champions and 2015 could crown the greatest of them all with superstar filly Treve bidding for a hat-trick of Arc successes.
Treve (Evens)
Targeting an unprecedented third – yes, third – victory in the famous race, she looks unbeatable on soft ground yet the dry forecast has given it a more competitive look. She’s won four times on good ground, including when taking this last year, but will have to concede weight to a talented bunch of three-year-olds and victory is hardly as assured as her price suggests.
Chance: 9/10
Form: 10/10
Value: 6/10
Golden Horn (11/2)
The Dante, Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes winner. John Gosden’s star colt is most effective on a sound surface and will relish the drying conditions. Whether it’s quick enough come Sunday we’ll have to wait and see but, if he gets his ground, his receiving of weight from the older horses means it’ll take something special to beat him. Treve is just that, though.
Chance: 9/10
Form: 9/10
Value: 8/10
Jack Hobbs (12/1)
An unlikely participant given the dry forecast. Connections see little point in running him to find out what they already know: that Golden Horn is the superior horse. Any rain might change that plan, but doubts remain around whether he can beat Treve on her favourite surface and Ascot’s Champion Stakes looks a more likely target.
Chance: 7/10
Form: 8/10
Value: 5/10
New Bay (9/2)
There’s always at least one French-trained three-year-old short in the Arc betting and this year it’s French Derby winner New Bay’s turn. Trainer Andre Fabre seems quietly confident having enjoyed a perfect prep; he acts on all surfaces and is now proven in trip after his easy win in the Prix Neil. Collateral French Derby form has him held by Golden Horn, Free Eagle and Found after second-placed Highland Reel flopped at Leopardstown. Big chance but poor value.
Chance: 8/10
Form: 7/10
Value: 4/10
Found (16/1)
Acts on all ground and a Group One winner at Longchamp aged two, she’s been trained for this race by Aiden O’Brien and her generous fillies’ weight allowance puts her right in the mix. She’ll have the world’s finest jockey on board in Ryan Moore, but is unproven over the Arc trip and has something to find with Golden Horn and possibly Free Eagle. A live chance at a big price.
Chance: 8/10
Form: 8/10
Value: 8/10
Free Eagle (20/1)
Lightly raced four-year-old who was desperately unlucky in the Irish Champion Stakes when receiving a big bump from Golden Horn. There’s a feeling we’re yet to see him at his best with his Prince Of Wales’s Stakes win coming after an interrupted prep. He acts on all grounds but trainer Dermot Weld feels his preference is for a sound surface, so forecast conditions look ideal. Big player despite giving weight to some classy three-year-olds as well as Treve.
Chance: 8/10
Form: 8/10
Value: 9/10
Flintshire (25/1)
Fabre’s second string and second in this last year on good ground, he’s likely to go off a similar, big price. His master trainer, Andre Fabre, has him in good form after a Grade 1 win in America and he can go close again should things quicken up. There’s plenty to find with Treve on recent form, but a good draw could bring him right into each-way calculations.
Chance: 5/10
Form: 7/10
Value: 8/10
Erupt (33/1)
Emphatic Grand Prix de Paris winner, beaten by New Bay in the Prix Neil on very soft ground – form that may be disguised and overlooked by bookmakers if back to his best on a sounder surface. Trip is an unknown so he fits the ‘unexposed’ profile on just his fifth career start. With course form he makes each-way appeal but to improve past all of the market principles would be a huge ask.
Chance: 7/10
Form: 7/10
Value: 8/10
Dolniya (33/1)
The forgotten horse having finished fifth in this last year. She followed that up with Group One success at Meydan but has toiled in her European season since. Now aged four and out of form, it’s hard to see why she would improve past the market principles and represents no value even at a big price.
Chance: 3/10
Form: 4/10
Value: 5/10
Manatee (50/1)
Trained by the Arc master Andre Fabre and said to be in flying form, he has plenty of improving to do to be competitive after being totally outclassed by Treve in the Prix Vermeille – the very soft ground is an easy excuse. He may have kept something back for Sunday, though, and has some each-way appeal given his good record at Longchamp.
Chance: 3/10
Form: 6/10
Value: 7/10
Tapestry (33/1)
Seen just the once since 13th in this last year when second to Ribbons in a Curragh Group Two. Her preparation was interrupted when skipping the Prix Vermeille due to ground concerns and looks to have way too much improving to do to be competitive. Connections are perhaps clinging to her Yorkshire Oaks win last season where she took the unbeaten record of subsequent Arc fourth Taghrooda, yet that seems like a distant memory and race fitness is a factor.
Chance: 1/10
Form: 3/10
Value: 3/10
Silverwave (50/1)
A horse we like having put him up to win the Grand Prix De Paris, he ran a really nice race behind New Bay in the Prix Neil but jockey Frankie Dettori seemed to think the winner won with ease and wouldn’t fancy him to reverse placings. That was on soft ground and the drying conditions possibly won’t help his cause so he makes place appeal at best. There are worse horses at shorter prices.
Chance: 5/10
Form: 6/10
Value: 7/10
Eagle Top (50/1)
King George second but not a likely starter, he wasn’t given a tough race last time out at Newbury yet is plenty exposed at this level and ultimately lacks the class for this. Makes each-way appeal at the current prices – which will surely be trimmed should he take his chance. No thanks.
Chance: 4/10
Form: 6/10
Value: 6/10
The verdict
Any significant rain makes Treve impossible to oppose given her perfect preparation, but that seems unlikely so it’s tough to justify her price. New Bay is sure to run a huge race but it’s hard to see past Golden Horn should things really quicken up before Sunday. Good ground and a return to his Derby form should see him take this, but the concern is whether seven is one start too many this season and the value might be in an each-way bet on the lightly-raced Found or Free Eagle. A wide draw in the Arc can put paid to the best of chances and if either find themselves close to the rail, they rank outstanding each-way chances at big prices.
We’ll be making final selections in addition to our ante-post selections on Saturday evening.
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