With nine weeks to go, it’s about time we got our hands dirty in the busy ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festival.
Every man and his dog seems to be playing the long-term game these days and, as such, value can be hard to come by with even the remotest change in a race’s complexion triggering an over-reaction from the betting public.
Fortunately over-reactions can go both ways with one bad performance enough to push even the most likely candidates out from the favourites towards the rags.
I was left cursing when SCEAU ROYAL hammered a useful field at Cheltenham on his reappearance this season after having high hopes for his Triumph Hurdle chances last year, but a disappointing run in the Fighting Fifth has seen his Champion Hurdle odds drift all the way out to 33/1 for the big one on the opening day of the Festival.
That run isn’t too difficult to forgive given he was racing for the third time in a little over a month and on ground a lot softer than he’d like.
He certainly travelled well into the race and briefly found himself on the bridle and at the front approaching the last, but he tired very quickly and found nothing when asked by jockey Daryl Jacob.
He’s now enjoying a winter break with a February return pencilled in by trainer Alan King, whose yard doesn’t attract the same level of media attention as Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Paul Nicholls or rising star Colin Tizzard, and that can influence his horses’ prices.
That’s obviously got nothing to do with Sceau Royal’s chances, though, and I’m keen to give him another chance at a huge price of 33/1.
Being aged five he has enormous scope for improvement and certainly looked to have made big strides with that Cheltenham win in October, but he’s hampered by his age group’s poor record in the Champion Hurdle and his generation of juvenile hurdlers is so far making little mark in Grade 1 open company this season – Petit Mouchoir the exception.
That aside, he has many hallmarks of a Champion Hurdle horse and it looks by far the most likely race for him at the Festival given he’s unlikely to stay more than two miles.
If we cast aside his poor run in the Triumph last season, when the King stable was under a cloud, he has excellent form at Cheltenham and seems to be best on the good, untouched ground associated with the opening day of the Festival.
His biggest asset is his slick jumping – which is so important in these high-class hurdle races – and he’s got a striking turn of foot too, given his conditions.
The biggest issue is Willie Mullins and whichever bullet he fires at the race.
Even if past winners Faugheen and Annie Power don’t make the racecourse this season – which at least one surely will – Neptune winner Yorkhill (currently novice chasing) or the versatile mare Vroum Vroum Mag would be likely favourites if they took their chances.
So whatever happens, Mullins will probably saddle the favourite – and with all those named horses proven over longer distances we can expect a strong gallop and a serious question mark on stamina.
That would perhaps be the biggest question mark for Sceau Royal, but our pick looks a certain starter and has a better chance than his odds suggest.
0.5pt ante-post each-way Sceau Royal @33/1, Champion Hurdle
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