Britain’s flat season effectively comes to a close on Saturday as champion jockeys and trainers are officially crowned at Ascot’s Champions Day, which features four Group One races.
This year’s card is shaping up to be arguably the best we’ve seen, with so many of the stars of this flat season out to finish in style.
French Derby and memorable Irish Champion Stakes winner Almanzor could have a rematch with the Arc winner Found in the Champion Stakes, whilst dual-Classic winner Minding could take on the colts in the one-mile QEII, where 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold and Jacques Le Marois hero Ribchester lie in wait.
There doesn’t seem to be much juice in many of the ante-post prices of those races, however I think the more-volatile Champions Sprint Stakes market has seen SHALAA overpriced in the six-furlong heat.
Trained by John Gosden, he was crowned champion two-year-old last season after winning the Group-One Prix Morny (watch below) and Middle Park Stakes to finish his season with five wins from six races after defeat on début.
Side-lined with injury for most of this season, the colt has been unable to make a mark as a three-year-old having missed the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and all the major Group One sprints.
The Champions Sprint Stakes on Saturday has long been touted his revised primary target and he looks bang-on-course after an excellent reappearance over a rain-softened six furlongs at Ascot on October 1st.
Whilst he beat nothing of Group-One class that day, it was all hands and heels from Frankie Dettori – Gosden said afterwards he wasn’t allowed to use the whip to avoid giving him a hard race – and he won like a class horse should after a long layoff.
With a lack of match fitness and sharpness, he had every right to lose that race but didn’t – connections claim he was only 80% fit.
Another mark of a class horse is the ability to win on any ground – and with Group-level wins on good-to-firm, good, and soft already on his CV, he is a solid ante-post proposition given the weather is unlikely to hinder his chance.
Slotting in at 15/2 with Betfair and as low as 5/1 in places, he is amongst the favourites for Saturday and I do expect that price to come in in the days and hours before they’re off.
Dual-Nunthorpe winner Mecca’s Angel is around 8/1 but has to prove her stamina for six furlongs, bounce back from being turned over as a hot favourite for the Abbaye at Chantilly on Arc weekend and convince her trainer she’s worth risking before her imminent retirement from racing.
I’m not convinced she’ll line up and I’m not convinced we’ll see the best of her if she does, so, given July Cup-winner Limato (5/2) looks likely to swerve this in favour of a trip to Los Angeles for the Breeders’ Cup – though the current view from connections is he’ll run if it’s good ground – we could see two of the favourites withdrawn before the final declarations, which would take a fair chunk out of the market.
That would leave Shalaa, last year’s second Twilight Son (10/1) and Commonweath Cup and Haydock Sprint Cup-winner Quiet Reflection (9/2), as the three horses most likely to be supported and I’d be surprised if any of those went off much bigger than 5/1 in that scenario.
I would mention Sprint Cup-second The Tin Man in that bracket, but he’s no price at 8/1 given all aforementioned horses are multiple-Group-One winners – and I do expect one of that trio to take the spoils should Limato be withdrawn.
Shalaa, easily the most unexposed in the race, will arrive fresher than all of them and is my pick – though last year’s second Twilight Son has been very lightly campaigned too.
Aged two he looked like something special, and on Saturday he can go some way to confirming that.
1pt ante-post win Shalaa @15/2, 13:20 Ascot, Saturday (Betfair)
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