York’s Ebor meeting, their biggest of the year, kicks off on Wednesday and the Group One Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of a top-class card. We’ve a proper renewal to look forwards to with winners of the 2000 Guineas, Dubai Turf, Prince Of Wales’ Stakes, King George, Eclipse, Irish Derby, St James’ Palace Stakes and Dubai World Cup lining up in a vintage renewal. Here we assess the runners and provide a selection.
Poet’s Word – 7/4
Aged five and now looking the real deal having landed back-to-back Group Ones at Ascot over ten and 12 furlongs this season, taking the notable scalps of Cracksman and Crystal Ocean to climb to the top of Europe’s official ratings. Fast ground seems important and he’s likely to get it again, so he fully deserves favouritism. Whether his short price is of value is debatable as I’ve seen this horse beaten too many times to label him a banker in such a competitive Group One. There are similarities with 2016 winner Postponed, who drifted to a very backable price on the day of the race before getting up to win.
Roaring Lion – 11/4
Winner of the Coral Eclipse over this trip, which was the second time in four attempts he’d beaten Saxon Warrior home after fine efforts at Group One level. Once a complicated horse with a tendency to wander around the track, his recent runs have put those doubts to bed. He’s also a course and distance winner at York after a facile success in the Dante Stakes, so with the three-year-old weight allowance he looks rock solid. There are doubts, however, around the strength of the three-year-old form going into the Coral Eclipse, and the close proximity of Cliffs Of Moher and an out-of-form Hawkbill raise an eyebrow, while Saxon Warrior could very well reverse the form arriving a fresher horse.
Saxon Warrior – 5/1
Brilliant in the 2000 Guineas but, given he went off odds-on, a disappointment in the Derby where he didn’t enjoy the run of the race to finish fourth from a poor draw. A tame effort in the Irish Derby reads very poorly against the older horses if you take a line through second-placed Rostropovich and his run in the King George at Ascot, but backed up just a week later in the Eclipse he looked much more at home dropped back in trip to the Eclipse distance of ten furlongs. Arriving a fresh horse, he has a very good chance of reversing form with Roaring Lion – whom he has already beaten twice in his short career – but the Aidan O’Brien yard remains under a cloud as a well documented illness is affecting almost all his horses. I’m not sure that’s truly factored into his price.
Benbatl – 12/1
Possibly the most interesting of runners, Saeed bin Suroor’s four-year-old was fifth in the Derby last year before winning at Royal Ascot when dropped in trip. He was also second in the Dante on soft ground over this course and distance last year, beating a very raw subsequent King George second Crystal Ocean, so York holds no fears. He won a proper Group One over in Meydan on Dubai World Cup night this March, beating some classy horses from Japan and earning him favouritism for the mile-long Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot where he was a big disappointment. If we’re being generous we can forgive him that poor run as it was his first for three months. Though the form doesn’t add up to much, he put that behind him when landing Group One honours in Germany and arrives at York in good form. I couldn’t say with confidence that any of the three-year-olds in this race boast superior form, so he must have a chance and may be underestimated at 12/1.
Without Parole – 14/1
Saw his unbeaten run end over a mile at Goodwood when forced to make the pace, and we might not have seen his true running that day. His victory in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot suggests he’s better than that, but the form of that race has worked out terribly so far and I’ve not seen enough from his last two starts to suggest the extra two furlongs will suit. You could argue the bookies have given us a nice price, though.
Latrobe – 16/1
Winner of the Irish Derby when ahead of Saxon Warrior, that didn’t look the best renewal of the race and I’m not sure that form is anywhere near good enough to win a race as good as this, though a lightly raced and progressive profile does at least promise more. He’s a big enough price to be of serious consideration, but it would feel very speculative.
Thunder Snow – 16/1
All his best form is on Meydan’s dirt track and, though he’s a Dubai World Cup winner, I’m not sure he’s entitled to be considered a realistic winner in such a top class turf race after such a long break. I prefer the yard’s other runner Benbatl.
Thundering Blue – 33/1
I would be amazed if he were to be good enough and I don’t think 33/1 quotes are anywhere near big enough in such a deep race.
The verdict:
I don’t think any of the three-year-olds are priced up generously and fancy punting on the older horses boasting the superior form. If that is the case then Dubai Turf winner BENBATL must be better than a 12/1 shot given he should be in prime condition after two runs in Europe this summer. He really surprised and impressed in Meydan to suggest he’s an improved horse this season, while the return to form of the bin Suroor yard offers more hope. Poet’s Word is very much respected most of the others.
1pt win Benbatl @12/1, 15:35 York, Wednesday
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