We’re keen to give Andrew Balding’s Scottish another chance in France today after his excellent second to Highland Reel at Goodwood. The two routed the other runners and quickly pulled five lengths clear at the business end of that encounter. We didn’t fancy the winner at all, but he’s since further proved us wrong with a top-level success in Arlington’s Secretariat Stakes to go with his second to New Bay in the French Derby – New Bay has won well since so the form is rock solid.
Scottish’s own form was given a boost the same week, with Keble – who he beat in his maiden – running a blinder to finish second to Gibeon in a Goodwood handicap. As mentioned last time, he also went down a neck to subsequent Bahrain Trophy winner Mr Singh, who is currently up with the ante-post favourites for the St Leger. With a month’s break since his Goodwood run and what would be only his sixth start, he should arrive fresh and open to further improvement.
Today’s race is the Group Two Grand Prix De Deauville over 12 furlongs. The favourite, Sumbal, appears held by the selection on French Derby form – he finished four or five lengths behind Highland Reel – and I’m struggling to see why he’s so short after just two runs. They are the only three-year-olds in the race, receiving a generous 10lbs from the colts, which is 3lbs more than they’d receive in the UK at this stage of the season.
It’s been very soft in Deauville in recent weeks, but official going is good today, which bodes well for the selection as a glance at the breeding doesn’t offer much hope for an easier surface. It had rained a lot prior to Goodwood, so he should be fine despite some showers forecast.
Last year’s winner Cocktail Queen has been running well all season with form figures of 412221, but has something to find with the re-opposing Meleagros after a meeting in May; both might want more rain to be at their best. Group One winner Spiritjim hasn’t won since June 2014, but does have a course and distance win in similar conditions, so he may be overpriced at 12/1 if he can find his form. Siljan’s Saga is one from ten, with that solitary victory her 2013 maiden, so she can’t be backed despite what seems a curiously-short price of 10/1.
We’re struggling to rule out the lightly-raced Loresho, who may be the greatest threat with a good-ground course-and-distance win earlier in the month at Group Three level. He was impressive that day and is open to a lot of improvement on just his fourth start, so the 8/1 also looks worth a bet, especially with Belgian ace Christophe Soumillon onboard.
1pt win Scottish @5/1, Grand Prix De Deauville [Deauville, 15:10]
1pt win Loresho @8/1, Grand Prix De Deauville [Deauville, 15:10]