Saturday’s Epsom Derby has been a happy hunting ground for these pages in recent years, advising the winners of both renewals since our inception at odds of 11/1 and 40/1. Unlike those two years, we have a very strong favourite to overcome this time in 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, of last year’s winning connections Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore.
It’s been a stormy few days in the south of England with a lot of rain hitting Epsom, which all but guarantees the word ‘soft’ in the going description, and that can be a market leveller. Below is an A-Z of runners with our best bets in the race.
DEE EX BEE – 25/1
A good second at Chester from a wide draw and no match for Young Rascal, I don’t really see any reason why he would reverse that form given the winner hardly enjoyed a smooth passage and won cosily. Also beaten by Crossed Baton in the Epsom Derby Trial, who was soundly beaten next time out in the Dante Stakes and hasn’t made the cut for this, his overall form has a lot of question marks and 25/1 is probably the right price.
DELANO ROOSEVELT – 14/1
Probably the closest profile match to last year’s winner Wings Of Eagles, for the same connections, who last year shaped well in defeat in his trial but relished the step up in trip best of all when it mattered the most. With the test of stamina likely to suit on both pedigree and form grounds, this son of Galileo is one for the each-way shortlist as he’s just the type to be held up and run into a place or better in the closing stages. Rain shouldn’t hurt his chances, but is he good enough?
HAZAPOUR – 10/1
Of those at the top of the market, he’s the one I’d be keenest of laying at odds of 10/1. His sire Sharmadal, a miler, very rarely sires Group One horses on this continent over the Derby trip and they usually appreciate fast ground too – though his son Pakistan Star offered a timely 12f Group One win in Hong Kong this year to give his backers hope. Having won the same trial as 2016 Derby winner Harzand for the same connections, who’ve also moved to secure Frankie Dettori in the saddle, the money that’s come for him feels a shade naive given his pedigree and the marked improvement he showed last time out when getting better ground. Some very good judged fancy his chances, but I wouldn’t go near him even at longer odds.
KEW GARDENS – 33/1
Showed real promise as a two-year-old with his best run on fast ground at Newmarket, but he’s clearly a stayer and his efforts over shorter trips on easier ground in Ireland should be marked up. Though twice beaten this season in two starts, the bare form doesn’t tell the full story as was unbalanced after losing a shoe when placing second to Knight To Behold in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Watch it back and he was all over the shop in the home straight, yet still made up ground, while he was crucially boxed in when the winner stole a good ten lengths from the front mid race. The Oaks on Friday was won by a Donnacha O’Brien-ridden maiden with tales of hard luck from her trial, and Kew Gardens fits a very similar profile. I don’t know about the ground, though.
KNIGHT TO BEHOLD – 20/1
A very impressive all-the-way winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial on his sole run this season, beating a solid horse in Kew Gardens, it was the kind of performance you want to pick holes in but closer examination hasn’t found many. By Sea The Stars, who both won the Derby himself and has already sired both an Oaks and Derby winner in his career as a stallion, there are no reasons to doubt his pedigree or staying power and it’s only the prospect of slow ground that’s an unknown. Perhaps vulnerable to a turn of foot and unlikely to be allowed such a soft lead on Saturday, there are reasons to doubt him but he’s a major player and a standout option at the prices nonetheless.
MASAR – 20/1
Excellent Craven winner who backed that up with a fine third in the 2000 Guineas, 20/1 is a daft price for undoubtedly the second best form horse in the race. The trip is an unknown – as it is for most – and I’m not convinced he wants too much rain either, but he’s overpriced for sure. The nagging doubt is the lack of an obvious reason for why he’d reverse the Guineas form with the favourite, who has more reasons to improve, but the draw is among them and I can see him running a massive race.
ROARING LION – 11/1
Twice beaten by Saxon Warrior in Group Ones, he will need to make it third time lucky to land this – but an impressive win in the Dante Stakes offered plenty of promise and the two are matched more closely than the betting suggests. The issue is he’s twice finished behind Masar this season who is available at nearly twice the price. Big player but hard to make a case on value grounds. Rain is a concern too.
SAXON WARRIOR – 4/5
He’s probably your winner but odds-on ante-post quotes are very exaggerated given there are still questions to answer around his suitability for Epsom and the Derby trip, which is a full 50% longer than the longest he’s ever tried. Shaped like a miler when winning the 2000 Guineas, showing a fine turn of foot, and there are enough question marks to take him on, with the rain and poor drawn in stall one only adding to the uncertainty.
SEVENNA STAR – 50/1
Frankie Dettori has abandoned to ride Hazapour, while the form of his recent Sandown win has been knocked recently and there are far nicer options at fancy prices. He does look a likely stayer and won’t mind the ground at all, though.
THE PENTAGON – 40/1
Twice behind Delano Roosevelt in trials this season and appearing to want fast racing ground to be seen at his best. Doesn’t look the most natural stayer as he’s not shaped on his last two starts like another two furlongs will suit, so there’s not a lot to like about his Derby claims this year.
YOUNG RASCAL – 12/1
Possibly the most difficult to assess of all the runners as he’s from the first crop of three-year-olds by the classy Intello, a son of Galileo who excelled at middle distances as a winner of the French Derby and placed in an Arc. Having won the Chester Vase cosily from Dee Ex Bee after a troubled passage, it could be a risk to underestimate the form despite it receiving a few knocks. The trials are just trials, though, and you can bank on his stamina with the promise of more to come. 12/1 neither over- or underestimates his chance I suspect, and he’s one of few in here that might prefer softer underfoot conditions.
ZABRISKIE – 66/1
Finished 6/8 and 3/9 in two starts this season, with Roaring Lion far too good in the Dante Stakes at York. Zero market confidence offers any suggestion he’s better than that and there are far more appealing long shots lining up in this.
The verdict:
Hardly the deepest Derby field if the trials are anything to go by, but Saxon Warrior isn’t the champion he’s been made out to be just yet. Tactics will be fascinating as the Coolmore runners probably won’t want to go too hard up front in case the favourite gets stuck behind from a poor draw. He probably will win, but I certainly don’t expect him to, and he’s readily taken on. MASAR is a crazy price and only has a length or so to make up with the favourite on their Guineas run. If its strength was ever in doubt, his form received a timely boost when Romanised landed the Irish 2000 Guineas last month as well as Roaring Lion landing the Dante. He’s a seriously good horse and any ground concerns are more than accounted for in the price. I want to have two in the race and, for all I rate the chances of Knight To Behold, the draw hasn’t been kind if he has ambitions of racing prominently again, and the one I can’t get away from is KEW GARDENS who should have an excellent chance of reversing the Lingfield form. With stamina assured and the promise of more to come, he looks the each-way play.
1pt win Masar @20/1, 14:30 Epsom, Saturday
1pt each-way Kew Gardens @20/1, 14:30 Epsom, Saturday (5 places, 1/4 odds with Bet365 – edit the each-way terms in the betslip)