Ascot’s QEII is now the richest mile race in Europe and pays its winner £623k, so it’s naturally attracted a star-studded field with all the leading lights of the mile division present bar the now-retired The Gurkha, who won the French Guineas and Sussex Stakes.
No one horse has dominated these mile events this season in the way Solow did in 2015, when victory in this sealed his fifth Group One on the bounce, however the way winners have changed hands in the top-level contests throughout the division this season certainly makes for a better betting heat.
1000 Guineas winner Minding leads the market at a general 2/1 and looks to cap off a tremendous season which has seen her add a further four Group One races, including two Classics, to her brace as a juvenile.
All those have been against her own sex and she takes on the colts for just the second time after an excellent third in the Irish Champion Stakes, which reads all the better now the winner, her stablemate Found, has gone on to win the Arc.
She’s won over seven, nine, ten and twelve furlongs and I don’t think it’s really worth arguing whether this step back to a mile is her best trip or not, as she was hugely-impressive over the trip as a juvenile and when winning the Guineas.
This is a hot, hot race though featuring the 2000 Guineas and St James’ Palace Stakes winner Galileo Gold, the Irish Guineas winner Awtaad, the Prix Jacques Le Marois winner Ribchester and Irish 1000 Guineas winner Jet Setting – those are all Group One races.
The in-form Lightning Spear, an excellent third to leading miler Tepin at Royal Ascot, and HIT IT A BOMB add further depth to an excellent renewal.
I could make a case for all of them, particularly Ribchester, who appears to have the measure of Galileo Gold and Awtaad, but it’s Aidan O’Brien’s second-string that could be massively overpriced.
Hit It A Bomb was an impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland, USA, around this time last year, showing a classy turn of foot to land the spoils in what is always a hugely-competitive race (watch below).
Injury has derailed his Classic season and he’s had very few opportunities to make his mark as a three-year-old, with just the two runs so far in his native Ireland.
O’Brien is the best target trainer in the business and countless times we’ve seen his best horses peak for these Group One races, so, given he was one of his best juveniles last season and clearly set out for big things, I’m not for one second discounting the fact he could only manage third in those two starts this season.
At 25/1 he’s a big price and, to an equal measure, unexposed against a field full of horses coming to the end of a long, hard season.
Ryan Moore, first jockey to Aidan O’Brien, clearly can’t get off a six-time Group-One winner in Minding so it’s no negative that he’s opted for her ahead of Hit It A Bomb, and he gave the colt a big thumbs up in his Betfair column:
“Don’t be surprised if Hit It a Bomb runs well at a big price. I was very impressed with him when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and he still wasn’t quite ready when third to Awtaad at Leopardstown last time. He could surprise.”
The forgotten horse, perhaps?
0.5pt each-way Hit It A Bomb @25/1, 15:10 Ascot, Saturday (Bet365, 1,2,3, 1/4)
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