The most valuable race on Saturday’s Champions Day card at Ascot is the QIPCO-sponsored Champion Stakes, a ten-furlong Group One with a cool £737k for the winner. This year’s renewal looks a hot one with – bar Postponed – all the major middle-distance names of this season in contention and some old favourites returning from the sidelines. Here we go from A-Z and compare the chances of each runner before picking our best bet of the race.
Almanzor (French Derby, Irish Champion Stakes) 13/8
A favourite of these pages after his brilliant win in an Irish Champion Stakes for the ages, he beat Arc winner Found that day to add to his French Derby success earlier in the season. Ten furlongs is his trip so, with a nicer gap between races, trainer Jean-Claude Rouget opted to skip the Arc in favour of this and he’s more than a worthy favourite with no notable holes in his claims. His price is a little skinny, though.
10/10
Fascinating Rock (2015 Champion Stakes, Tattersalls Gold Cup) 11/2
Last year’s surprise winner who won the Tattersalls Gold Cup, from Found, earlier in the season and was subsequently put away for the summer for an Autumn campaign geared towards his defence of this. A quarter of the price in this year’s betting, it’s hard to make a case for him given he missed his prep run in the Irish Champion and looks to be up against a far tougher field this time round. It’s also difficult to argue Found hasn’t hit a new gear since their encounter in Ireland, so the bare form looks very flattering and at 11/2 he’s hardly a big price.
6/10
Found (2015 Breeders’ Cup Turf, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, second in nine Group One races including this last year) 5/2
What a remarkable yet frustrating horse she is. Always the bridesmaid and sometimes the bride, Found has finished second in nine Group One races and, in that regard, has not been kind to punters. Jockey Ryan Moore often employs hold-up tactics and loves to scrape paint off the rails at Ascot, which, like in last year’s race, always gives her a sporting chance of coming up just short. Now an Arc and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner – two of the most prestigious races in world racing – she is pure class and should never be underestimated, yet she has to reverse form with Almanzor who arrives a little fresher given he skipped the Arc.
9/10
Jack Hobbs (2015 Irish Derby) 16/1
Had it not been for the exploits of Golden Horn last season, Jack Hobbs would be a Dante and Derby winner and possibly more. However, he wasn’t good enough in this race when sent off favourite last year and looks up against it this time around as injury has prevented him from racing more than a couple of furlongs in 2016. A big price on his reappearance, he might have each-way claims but I’m not expecting fireworks despite it being very possible he could improve on his Classic campaign as a four-year-old.
5/10
Midterm 20/1
Now here’s an interesting one. Regally bred – out of the multiple-Group One-winner Midday and by super-sire Galileo – an injury-hit season has ensured he goes into the race very unexposed with the sky the limit. Injured in the Dante Stakes at York, he returned at Chantilly on Arc trials day to run a neck-second to Japanese Derby winner Makihiki, who unfortunately did that form no favours when finishing well beaten in the Arc itself. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on the form-line as Makahiki clearly ran no sort of race and Midterm is all about potential – which connections have always insisted he has. If you’re looking for one at a big price who could be anything then this could be the bet, however in a race as competitive as this it can pay not to stray too far from the favourites as you’re asking an awful lot to improve past them.
5/10
My Dream Boat (Prince of Wales’s Stakes) 33/1
Beat an unlucky Found to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on soft ground, and subsequent efforts suggest he needs cut in the ground to be seen to his best. Clive Cox’s four-year-old also flopped in the Eclipse, so he’s hard to fancy whichever way you look at it.
3/10
Racing History 25/1
Once an 8/1 winner for these pages at Windsor, he failed to make a mark in last year’s Champion Stakes and hasn’t been seen since, so, perhaps exposed as short of this class, Saeed Bin Suroor’s four-year-old looks out of his depth without any form in the book this year. Bin Suroor has suggested this is a stepping stone for an upcoming Group One in Germany, so he’s best avoided.
2/10
The Grey Gatsby (2014 French Derby, 2014 Irish Champion Stakes) 50/1
A very likeable horse who made a big mark as a three-year-old by winning the French Derby and beating the brilliant Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes, he’s looked a shadow of his former self since and, now aged five, his best days look behind him after he finished last in the Arc.
1/10
US Army Ranger 20/1 (2nd in the Epsom Derby)
Aidan O’Brien’s number-one hope for the Epsom Derby this season, he came second in what has turned out to be a poor renewal with the winner Harzand’s subsequent exploits highly disappointing. US Army Ranger has himself been disappointing since in failing to win in two Group Threes, though he may have bumped into something special in the filly Zhukova, who contests the fillies’ race earlier on in the card. At a massive price he is of definite interest given he was unraced at two and should still be improving, but the form book does him no favours and it’d be a roll of the dice. That said, O’Brien is in ridiculous form and this colt has carried so much stable confidence in the past that his best days are surely ahead of him. O’Brien and the Coolmore operation only care about one thing, generating Group One-winning stallion prospects, so that brace of Group Three defeats are likely to have been nothing more than stepping stones to this and you can expect the real colt to show up.
7/10
The verdict:
Almanzor should win this on the strength of his Irish Champion Stakes win and Found has got to go close, but US ARMY RANGER could be the forgotten horse with so much scope for improvement. Handed a plum draw in stall two and with ground to suit, we know he stays further and he looks a big price considering this is likely to have been his target since that excellent second to Harzand in the Derby.
0.75pt each-way US Army Ranger @20/1, 15:45 Ascot, Saturday
Leave a comment