Europe’s richest horse race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, takes centre stage at its temporary home of Chantilly in northern France on Sunday, as its usual venue Longchamp undergoes redevelopment.
There’s no doubt in my mind it’s the greatest horse race on the planet, known for big fields full of quality from all corners of the world, however this year’s race looks a little lacking without a clear French hope.
The unbeaten La Cressonnaire, winner of the French Guineas and Oaks, has been withdrawn through injury leaving last year’s third, New Bay, the shortest in the betting for the home team at 14/1.
The Irish Champion Stakes this year can probably claim to be the most competitive Group One to be run in 2016 – New Bay was a solid fourth – however, its winner, La Cressonnaire’s stablemate Almanzor, has opted to keep to a mile-and-a-quarter and target Ascot’s Champion Stakes in a few weeks instead.
New Bay is a class horse, but he wasn’t good enough last year and hasn’t looked quite the same this season without his three-year-old weight allowance.
A popular stat concerning the Arc is that three-year-old fillies have won four of the last five renewals, suggesting their generous weight allowance exaggerates their chance – this fact has recently been accepted by authorities, who from next season will be reducing their concession.
However, with no La Cressonnaire, the shortest in the betting to fit that profile is the horse that finished second to her in the Prix de Diane, Left Hand.
A 20/1 chance, she has done that form no harm in two subsequent starts by landing a Group Three at Deauville and the Group One Prix Vermeille on Arc Trials day.
Prix de Diane third Volta also ran a huge race behind Qemah in the Group One Prix Rothschild, so there’s a strong enough look to her form.
Winning distances of half a length and a neck in those two most recent wins suggest she hasn’t got too much in hand over her opponents – and it takes an awful lot to win the Arc – yet she only does enough in her races and won the Vermeille a touch cosily.
Unexposed against the colts, she could be the value at a big price.
This is, however, the Arc, whose winners should represent the very best this sport has to offer and, by backing an unexposed improver, you are asking them to progress to become arguably the best horse in training.
That’s a very big ask, so it can pay to focus on the favourites whose achievements place them there on merit.
Roger Varian’s Postponed is a clear 7/4 favourite – a position he’s occupied for most of the year now.
It’s very hard to argue against his claims after Group One victories in last year’s King George, the Sheema Classic in Dubai in March, and both the Coronation Stakes at Epsom and Juddmonte International at York, punctuated by a couple of Group Twos along the way.
That’s six wins in a row, four at Group One level, and on ground ranging from soft to good-to-firm.
There are ways he can be beaten, though, and bad luck is the most likely at Chantilly where track position and the draw are often crucial.
However, he’s been handed stall seven so has every chance of converting his favourite status.
I really am in no hurry to take him on and make him the likeliest winner by some distance, but I’d be hard pushed to say he’s of any value at that price.
One who hasn’t fared well with the draw – again – is Aidan O’Brien’s Found, 7/1 in the betting and an excellent second in the Irish Champion Stakes to Almanzor.
She also beat Golden Horn to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf last season and has a phenomenal record in Group One races, having finished second in nine of them.
One of those seconds was when brushed aside by Postponed at Epsom, but she was hardly in great form going into the race and had run just 13 days earlier so might not have arrived fresh.
Her best form is probably good enough to win the Arc this year, so she is very much a big player, but I suspect she’ll run on from the back to grab a place, again.
Her stablemates Highland Reel and Order Of St George are also parked wide, and whilst the former is a King George winner, he has plenty to find with Postponed and has been aggressively campaigned, whilst the latter had his limitations exposed by the hurdler Wicklow Brave in the Irish St Leger recently and looks to have it all to do stepping markedly back in trip.
Japan crave this race and always send their best middle-distance horses over to win it, but have so far failed despite coming oh-so close on several occasions.
Makahiki, winner of the Japanese Derby, is the sole representative this year and looks to have as decent chance as those before him, yet he’s been given a tricky draw in 14 and will have to be very good to win from there.
Previous Japanese raiders have failed thanks to terrible rides from their jockeys, but Frenchman Christophe Lemaire is booked to do the steering and that has to be a big plus.
He looks a talented horse and won his trial cosily, despite a winning distance of less than a length, but it’s impossible to quantify the form and know whether the 6/1 about is of any value.
I’ve been burned backing the Japanese raiders before so approach them with caution nowadays.
The main Irish hope appears to be HARZAND, who was a memorable winner for readers of these pages in the Epsom Derby, but flopped recently behind Almanzor in the Irish Champion Stakes.
The excuse offered by connections is he was struck into early in the race, which opened a big cut on his leg.
Sometimes excuses are thrown about to try and maintain stud value, but these claims do sound sincere and we shouldn’t take the form of that race too literally.
With those issues behind him, he’s been handed a decent draw in stall six and will appreciate every drop of rain there’s been in France overnight, so is likely to run up to the level of Epsom.
The Derby form has been knocked back several times since, but he was going away at the finish and fourth place was eight lengths back.
He also won the Irish Derby at Curragh, and perhaps it’s that run that now reads strongest, after second-placed Idaho won very impressively at York’s Ebor meeting.
I’m not one to make too much of comparing times in racing as different races are run at different paces, but I was surprised to see the Coronation Cup won by Postponed just over an hour before Harzand won the Derby was run a good three seconds slower, on identical ground over the same course and distance.
Postponed’s pacemaker Roseburg set a strong pace, so it was a well-run race, and he won practically on the bridle, but now consider he carried the exact same weight on the day as Harzand, yet will have to surrender 8lb on Sunday.
With the swing in the weights the winning times suddenly cast Harzand in a new light as you can bet that, hypothetically, if he’d have received 8lb and run in the Coronation Cup he’d have been a big player in that finish.
So if Harzand is fit and healthy and has improved since his run in the Irish Champion Stakes he should be a big threat to Postponed and represents solid value at 8/1.
Not a vintage Arc but, as always, it should be a special race.
1.5pt win Harzand @8/1, 15:05 Chantilly, Sunday (WillHill)
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