I had a look at the Eclipse market last night and concluded the bookies had it about right with Enable around evens, Ghaiyyath 5/2 and JAPAN around 4/1. I’d be hypocritical, then, if I didn’t now say that the 6/1 available about Japan isn’t a good bet.
Enable is vulnerable here over a trip short of her optimum and on her reappearance. Make no mistake, she has one objective this year and I doubt connections fear defeat after her agonising defeat in last year’s Arc when seeking a hat-trick. That is again her sole aim for this season so I wouldn’t expect her to be trained with anything else in mind so she might not be at her brilliant best. She’s an all-time great but Gosden has already got the excuses in early and I didn’t think she was overly impressive in this race last year, so now is a good time to take her on.
Ghaiyyath is boom or bust. Boom and he will make all and go a gallop that nothing can keep tabs with, like he did at Newmarket, but he does have the tendency to follow up with a bust next time out and I doubt he will get too much rope today. He’s a fair chance at 5/2 but, to be honest, I think Japan is a better horse than Ghaiyyath and the market has this wrong now he’s out to 6/1.
Japan was the Coolmore talking horse for last year’s Derby but had an interrupted preparation and just fell short in the Classic. However, wins at Royal Ascot, Longchamp and York put his career firmly on the upward curve, and he ran a cracker in the Arc when 4th behind Waldgeist and Enable. He’s always been spoken of as a top-notcher by his connections and it’s pretty easy to put a line through his Royal Ascot reappearance knowing that O’Brien will be expecting plenty of improvement for the run. I think 6/1 is too big.
1pt win Japan @6/1, 15:35 Sandown, Sunday
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