The Group-One Dubai Fillies’ Mile is one of the richest juvenile races in Europe and, with so many of these coming off the back of big performances, this year’s renewal looks a really tough nut to crack.
Ryan Moore chooses Minding over the ambitiously-named Coolmore (Joseph O’Brien), which looks a tip in itself. The latter, a full sister to crack miler Gleneagles, seems to be improving and shaped as if the step up to a mile would suit when outstaying opposition in a Curragh Group Three, but Minding surprised connections when beating another ambitiously-named filly, subsequent Longchamp heroine Ballydoyle, to Group One honours last time out. The yard generally cleans up in these juvenile Group Ones, but I am yet to be wowed by either and they don’t appeal at the prices.
Promising Run has the course form I always look for when punting at Newmarket. She was a 5/1 winner for 2Pts Win backers last month (Hawksmoor 3rd) and finished strongly enough to shake off any concerns over being upped in trip. Her trainer expects big things next season over ten furlongs and doesn’t seem too hot on her short-term chances, but the 13/2 offered by Paddy Power seems a generous price worth taking.
If you wanted to back the most visually impressive winner, John Gosden’s Nathra would probably be top of your list. Despite this representing a huge step up in class, she’s a best-priced 2/1 and it’s difficult to justify that being good value.
28/1 shot Marenko was just as impressive on her maiden success at Newbury (good to soft, Dawn Of Hope 3rd) and might improve a few lbs with the rain that’s fallen this week. She travelled really well last time out when just getting outstayed by Turret Rocks – form that received a boost after she chased Ballydoyle home at Longchamp – so is likely to be more competitive than her price suggests. Two defeats at Newmarket can be blamed on firm ground, and we fancy her to outrun her odds with some welcome soft in the going.
1pt win Promising Run @13/2, Newmarket 15:10 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Marenko @28/1, Newmarket 15:10 (check for bigger prices on Betfair Exchange)